Wall Street closes at a record for the first time since end of January
Investing.com -- Barclays says investor focus heading into Tesla’s first-quarter earnings on April 22 will center on capital spending needs, the pace of the company’s transition toward physical AI, and near-term margin pressure, even as excitement builds around long-term projects.
Analyst Dan Levy wrote that the “key question on incremental capex needs for Terafab/Solar” will be front and center.
These projects “were not included in the $20bn+ ’26 guide,” raising uncertainty around how much more Tesla will need to spend.
Barclays noted that Terafab, an ambitious plan to build a 1TW AI compute factory, could cost in the mid-single digit trillion dollars if fully built out.
Levy believes Tesla’s unveiling of Terafab, alongside plans for 100 GW of solar capacity, underscores a deeper shift since the end of Model S/X production, marking what he called “a symbolic baton pass for Tesla from automotive to Physical AI.”
Barclays added that growth will increasingly be driven by “Robotaxi scaling/FSD development/Optimus production.”
Still, the near-term outlook remains challenging. Levy expects first-quarter margins to decline quarter-on-quarter on lower volumes and raw material pressure.
The firm also pointed to weak stock performance, which it said reflects limited recent progress on autonomy and robotics.
While the pullback “could imply on the surface an opportunity for the stock to outperform on results,” Barclays warned that commentary on rising capex, and therefore “further negative FCF,” may weigh on sentiment.
